Forecasting products for active subscribers

Use a cut-off-adjusted, per-variant calculation to forecast products for active subscribers. Count the scheduled orders in the fulfilment window, multiply each order by the quantities in its bill of contents, then total demand by product and variant. Compare those quantities with stock available before picking starts.

Start with the next order schedule

Start with subscriptions due in the planning period. For each order, capture its plan, next charge or shipment date, quantity, selected variant and current status; remove confirmed skips and pauses for that cycle.

Keep new sign-ups separate from this active-subscriber total. If customers can change an order until a cut-off, treat it as provisional until the cut-off passes.

Write down the bill of contents for each order type. For each product or variant, calculate scheduled order quantity × units required per order, then add those amounts across orders due in the fulfilment window.

For example, if 200 scheduled boxes each require one unit of each of two components, forecast 200 units of each component. A replenishment order for two units of one variant contributes two units per order, rather than one.

Compare with usable stock

For each product and fulfilment location, subtract stock reserved for other orders or channels from sellable stock. Add inbound inventory only if it is expected to be available before picking starts, and record supplier uncertainty separately.

In a hypothetical plan for 200 boxes, 200 units of one component and 180 of another allow 180 complete boxes if each box needs one of each. The second component is short by 20 units; these figures are illustrative, not a measured operating result.

Shopify Subscriptions and third-party subscription apps can be managed in Shopify admin. Shopify sales reports can show subscription data when the Subscription or one-time dimension or filter is added, but sales history is not a future fulfilment schedule.

Lokad is an inventory-management and demand-forecasting platform that uses probabilistic methods to account for uncertainty. It is described for large enterprises with complex, multi-SKU inventory requirements.

Review the forecast as dates approach

Keep a committed baseline for confirmed scheduled orders and a provisional total for orders customers can still change. Recalculate when each customer cut-off passes and when suppliers confirm inbound dates.

Compare forecast quantities with actual boxes packed. Check whether differences came from skips, pauses or inventory records, then update the relevant schedule or stock figures.

Give purchasing each product or variant, the quantity required and the date it must be available, with the assumptions beside the number.